Modelling a complex world: improving macro-models

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Modelling and prediction in a complex world

A complex system is an entity, coherent in some recognisable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures and admit surprise and novelty that cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models thus represent simplifications in whic...

متن کامل

Macro - Econometric System Modelling

We summarize the history of macroeconometric system modelling as having produced four generations of models. Over time the principles underlying the model designs have been extended to incorporate eight major features. Because models often evolve in response to external events we are led to ask what has happened to models used in the policy process since the financial crisis on 2008/9. We find ...

متن کامل

Phase Space Reconstruction from Economic Time Series Data: Improving Models of Complex Real-World Dynamic Systems

Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models—in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks—are ill-equipped to portray complex realworld dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodicall...

متن کامل

Improving phylogenetic regression under complex evolutionary models.

Phylogenetic Generalized Least Square (PGLS) is the tool of choice among phylogenetic comparative methods to measure the correlation between species features such as morphological and life-history traits or niche characteristics. In its usual form, it assumes that the residual variation follows a homogenous model of evolution across the branches of the phylogenetic tree. Since a homogenous mode...

متن کامل

Macro-Economic Forecasting and Modelling

Confidence in macro-economic forecasting has periodically been punctured by episodes of economic turbulence and concomitant predictive failure. The poor performance in predicting the consumer boom in the late 1980’s, and the depth and duration of the recession in the 1990’s, can be viewed as merely the latest examples in a catalogue of failures, with noteworthy antecedents including the under-p...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Oxford Review of Economic Policy

سال: 2018

ISSN: 0266-903X,1460-2121

DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grx056